The perfect storm is brewing

[HAY MAKER]

Watching a drought in the making

By BEVERLY MOSELEY
Land & Livestock Post

The perfect storm is brewing, and Texas' cattle producers are once again in its path with nowhere to hide. Pastures over much of the state are baking under a relentless sun, while heat and wind sap precious soil moisture.
Adding fuel to the storm are record costs never seen before for inputs such as diesel and fertilizer.

"It could be the most costly drought yet, depending on how it shapes up -- depending on feed, fertilizer and high commodity prices," said state climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon. "There are some areas in drought right now that they didn't even bother planting anyway, especially in South Texas."

Extreme drought conditions stretch from Del Rio across to Houston and down the coastal plains to McAllen. The area around El Paso also is under extreme drought.

Areas in the northwestern tip of the Panhandle are experiencing exceptional drought conditions, while the rest of the state lies in moderate to severe drought. Only the far northeastern corner of the state is drought-free.

"Basically, we've had drought almost every two years in the state the past decade and a half. The current drought is similar to 1996 and 1998 -- meaning we had a dry fall and winter and especially spring, so we're actually going into the summer without much moisture," said Nielsen-Gammon.

Now is the time of year warm-season grasses should be growing. However, pastures are stressed and grass is short in many areas.

"The impacts for ranching are probably just starting," Nielsen-Gammon said.

In South Central Texas -- from San Antonio to Brenham to Corpus Christi -- the drought has the potential to reach historic proportions, such as the droughts of 1917 and 1971, he noted.

He said assuming this area received 1/2 inch of rain by the first week of July, then rain totals would reach 1.8 inches for May and June in that area. Normal rainfall would be 8.67 inches.

The South Central area has received 13.83 inches since September. Over the past five years, Nielsen-Gammon said, the same area averaged 27.92 inches for the same nine-month period.

The onset of drought can be deceiving. Pastures can still carry a hint of green in tall grasses, but upon closer inspection they reveal sparse forage and dry, cracked soil.

At H2O Ranch in Washington County, owner Steve Holt gazed across rolling expanses of tall, green-appearing grass where his registered herd of Braunvieh cattle were grazing.

But signs of drought stress could be seen with a closer look. Water in stock tanks was beginning to slowly evaporate. Grasses were yellowing and there were cracks in the soil 16 inches deep and inches wide. One pasture that was grazed shorter stands in sharp contrast to the tall grass on the other side of the fence.

"We're on the cusp. I think it's going to get real serious or we're going get a reprieve from the governor at the last minute. Ten days is going to tell the tale," said Holt in late June.

"We'd be in a world of hurt right now," said Holt, who bought the ranch in 2000, if 7 inches of rain hadn't fallen in May at the ranch. However, not a drop has fallen since. As Holt spoke, storm clouds were building on the horizon and moving steadily around the ranch.

Once again, however, he was out of luck that day. No rain.

Holt, who grew up farming in West Texas, said he's wiser now after surviving the drought of 2006. When that drought hit, he said, there was plenty of grass and he was overstocked on his 300 acres.

"We didn't react early enough to sell down. Prices had dipped and it was one of those deals -- we're in it now, let's see how it goes," Holt said.

Eventually, he sold down to 100 head during the earlier drought. He now runs about 65 head of cattle.

"Right now, I think we're at where we want to be," said Holt, who also owns a company in Houston that sells technology used for municipal water and waste-water treatment facilities.

He said through the drought his cattle continued to carry their body condition and fertility rates held up. He experienced a 96-percent pregnancy rate on the herd in 2006.

"So we lucked out on that deal. The cattle really performed for us," he said.

Weaning weights at H20 Ranch were down about 15 percent in 2007 because it took the cow herd a while to bounce back in milk production, he added.

"We made it through it and came away a little wiser," said Holt.

Since 2006, Holt has opted to be judicious and brutally honest when genetically selecting cattle for his operation.

"In years past, if something was on the bubble, we might give them a nod and let them hang around. Now, if they are even near the bubble they get sold," he said.

He said production costs on inputs such as fuel have increased a minimum of 40 percent since 2006. Also, Holt used to produce his own hay, but has decided to buy it now.

"Right now, we've pretty much made the management decision that we're going to buy our hay -- if there's hay to buy. We really have just now gotten to the point to where we're getting over the last drought and to go into a second round of it ...," Holt said leaving the thought unspoken.

Like many ranchers, Holt remains optimistic about receiving badly needed rains. However, he continues to operate with drought in mind.

"I do know this: After this drought there's another one. So you've got to look at the law of averages and protect yourself. Just make sure that in the worst-case scenario, you can walk out with at least the core of your herd," Holt said.

[Denny]

I thought it was suppose to be hot and dry in the south in the summer.

[HAY MAKER]

[kolanuraven]

We're getting in pretty sad shape over here also.

[Oldtimer]

[Hooks]

[kolanuraven]

[Hooks]

[HAY MAKER]

[CattleArmy]

We were just talking today how it has looked so great around here (not bragging read on) and just some hot windy days and it's looking dry again already.

[Denny]

[Mike]